President Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will face off at the ballot box in just 46 days, and among reliable pollsters, President Trump’s chances of reelection are looking bright.
According to Rasmussen Reports, Trump held a 2-point national lead this week over Harris. Importantly, Trump also held leads in key battleground states according to data from the Trafalgar Group.
Trafalgar found that Trump led Harris in Georgia (+2), Arizona (+2), North Carolina (+2), Wisconsin (+1), Pennsylvania (+3), and Michigan (+1).
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin’s data was collected in August.
But what is the true likelihood of a victory for President Trump on November 5? According to Eric Daugherty, the assistant news director at Florida Voice News, to believe Kamala Harris would win over Trump means assuming the following:
Polymarket’s famed betting odds have fluctuated wildly since Kamala Harris entered the race earlier this year. On September 19, the market had Harris’s odds at 51 percent against Trump’s 48 percent.
Their projection appears to be based on who may win the key swing states of Nevada, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. If Trump wins in just a couple of battleground states, that should be enough to vault him to the needed 270 electoral votes to secure the presidency.
Questionable narratives
In the lead-up to November, The New York Times reported that “it is becoming increasingly clear that there will be no clear and immediate winner on election night and that early returns could give a false impression of who will ultimately prevail.”
The question, of course, is WHY it is no longer possible in America to declare a winner on Election Day. Why do vote-counting processes take so long?
The Times claimed that if a winner is not declared on election night, “it will not necessarily point to failures in the process. More likely, it will be a result of the intense security measures required for counting mail-in ballots.”
It’s unclear what kind of “security measures” they are referring to.
Via the article:
“Election officials across the country are trying to telegraph to voters that waiting long hours or even days for a result is not unexpected in a close election. They are eager to counter conspiracy theorists who may seize on the uncertainty as evidence of fraud or malfeasance.”
The Times claimed that “the prolonged tabulation of ballots after election night” in 2020 was “falsely seized on by Mr. Trump as evidence that the election was rigged against him.”
No one can answer, however, why Americans were always able to find out who the next president would be at the end of Election Day in the United States until 2020. Stating that it is because of mail-in ballots is not a good enough – or realistic enough – answer.
Americans may recall that Trump was leading in states like Pennsylvania and Georgia on Election Day and night four years ago – but as the mail-in ballots arrived, his lead diminished. The tumultuous upheaval in the aftermath of such chaotic vote-counting processes drew sensible criticism and scrutiny, and it seems unconscionable that the greatest country in the world – capable of truly anything – is unable to muster enough organization and manpower to count ballots by the end of election night, as it has been doing for over 200 years.
Early voting and a vow from Trump
With the media rallying against Trump every second of every day and spastic vote-counting processes in America, President Trump’s prospective victory lay in the hands of sheer volume.
Republicans banking early votes in battleground states will be a key component of a Trump victory this year. In 2020 and 2022, same-day voting was heavily emphasized for Republicans, but this time, the narrative has shifted.
RNC Co-Chair Lara Trump has encouraged early voting to combat Democrat-heavy mail-in ballot demographics and the opposing party’s aggressive legal ballot harvesting operations.
“Here’s the reality of the situation for Republicans: if we all wait until Election Day, that will be too late,” she told Fox News earlier this year.
“We want people to get out and we want them to bank their vote,” she added.
President Donald Trump has also taken a hardline approach to the issue of election integrity since 2020, vowing to go after anyone caught in the act of cheating or ballot-related fraud.
He wrote on Truth Social in early September:
“I, together with many Attorneys and Legal Scholars, am watching the Sanctity of the 2024 Presidential Election very closely because I know, better than most, the rampant Cheating and Skullduggery that has taken place by the Democrats in the 2020 Presidential Election. It was a disgrace to our nation!”
He promised that upon a prospective win, “those people that CHEATED will be prosecuted to the fullest extend of the Law, which will include long term prison sentences so that this Depravity of Justice does not happen again.”
President Trump also vowed that anyone involved in “unscrupulous behavior will be sought out, caught, and prosecuted at levels, unfortunately, never seen before in our country.”
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